Page 92 - Sonbeel Utsab 2024

caused to the summer paddy in the state due to Covid-19 and/or lockdown.
According to a tentative estimate, in Assam for the year 2018-19, there has been a
damage of summer paddy to the extent of about 11 percent caused by animal and
birds, pest attack, abnormal weather, floods, disease and weed infections (DES,
Government of Assam). It, therefore, appears that the maturing period of summer
paddy has passed through the present phase of COVID-19 and lockdown and, hence,
there is no impact on production and yield of summer paddy.

One of the immediate and obvious concerns is the lack of operational capital
to a large section of farmers who were unable to find market for their crops including
vegetables during the last couple of months due to the lockdown. The lack of money
for making the necessary investment in agriculture for the coming season will,
however, be not limited to only this section of farmers. Studies show that remittances
made by out-migrant workers play a significant role in investment in agriculture
sector in Assam. Census 2011 put the figure of out-migrants for work from the state at
6.34 lakh out of which 72.8 percent are intra-district migrants, 19.7 percent are inter-
district migrants, 4.6 percent are inter-state and the rests are international migrants.
Various estimates indicate that presently some 15 to 18 lakh people of the state are
working outside the state. Government of Kerala (2013) estimates that in Kerala
alone there are some 4.32 lakh workers from Assam whose average annual per capita
remittance stands at Rs. 64,000 (i.e. a little over 5000 per month). It is, further, found
that close to 16.5 percent of the remittance received are used for agricultural
investment and operations.

It has been estimated that average operational cost of paddy per hectare in
Assam is Rs 41,819. Therefore, required amount for operation of 18.8 lakh hectares
of winter paddy in the state stands at Rs. 7862 crore (or Rs. 3467 crore if cost of
family labours is not accounted). The investment out of remittance, thus, constitutes
11 to 25 percent of the total investment for winter paddy in the state. The large scale
return migration due to COVID-19 and lockdown effect as discussed earlier,
therefore, will not only put pressure on the employment scenario of the state, but will
also have a suppressing impact on agricultural investment of the state to the extent of
10 to 20 percent. The return migration, thus, will have twin impact – direct impact in
the form of increasing unemployment and indirect impact in the form of loss of
capital investment in the state's economy.

Clearly, lack of investment in agriculture will bring reduced income to the
farmers. And those with agricultural credit will immediately experience a distressful
situation. Further, the anticipated drop in the agricultural investment in the state in
the coming season will adversely impact the agricultural labourers forcing them to
move out from farm sector. Limitations of the non-farm sector to absorb the
additional labour coming out from the farm sector together with the large scale return
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