Page 96 - Sonbeel Utsab 2024

2. The lockdown has caused a total loss in Gross State Domestic Product
(GSDP) worth Rs. 27463 crore at the current level of prices, which is about 8 percent
of the GSDP. The estimated loss includes Rs 6061 crore for the period March 24 to
31, 2020 and that of Rs. 21,402 crore for the period April 1 to May 3, 2020.
Agriculture and allied sector in the state alone is estimated to face a loss about Rs
3875 crore. Manufacturing and Construction sector lost Rs 4244 crore and Rs 2284
crore respectively. Among the services the Trade and Hospitality sector has been a
major looser with a loss of Rs 4945 crore. The Real Estate and Transport are two
other sectors incurring substantial losses estimated as Rs 1882 crore and Rs 1523
crore respectively. The estimated loss, however, indicates the 'minimum losses'
occurred in the economy during the lockdown.

3. As a consequence of COVID-19 it is estimated that 67 lakh people's
livelihood will face
vulnerabilities of myriad kind. The categories of casual labour and the self-
employed are expected to face severe stress and hardship. Due to condition created
by COVID-19 – depending on the overall condition and degree of economic
contraction, it is estimated that unemployment in the state will further increase by
15.7 to 27.1 lakh. As a result, the unemployment rate in the state will increase up to
the range of 16 to 27 percent from the present level of 8 percent. Consequently, it is
found that the poverty rate may go up to about 50 percent in the state.

4. COVID-19 will put considerable stress on the state finance as there will be an
estimated loss of revenue in the fiscal 2020-21 within the range of 12423 to Rs. 18236
crore, depending worst and best case scenarios of growth in the country in general
and the state in particular.

References
1. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas, 'Flattening the Pandemic and Recession
Curves', in Mitigating the COVID Economic Crisis: Act Fast and Do Whatever It
Takes (London UK: CEPR Press, 2020), p. 33.

2. K P Kannan and G Raveendran, 'From Jobless to Job Loss Growth',
Economic and Political Weekly, LIV.44 (2019), 38–44.

3. Calculated for the period 2011-12 to 2019-20 from the National Income
Accounts as released by the CSO (new series, 2011-12 prices); standard deviation
being 0.05 percent.

4. Linear Trend Projection of three years.

5. Employment and Unemployment Survey (EUS), NSSO, 2013-14.
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